The shrinking-civic-space narrative has a measurement problem
Reports of shrinking civic space have become routine in international commentary. A look at how the underlying indicators are constructed complicates the headline claim.
Reports describing a global "shrinking" of civic space have become a fixture of international commentary over the past decade, typically citing composite indices of association, assembly and expression rights.
Examining the indicator construction behind three widely cited indices, we find that changes in coding rules and expert-panel composition account for a meaningful share of the year-on-year movement, separate from any change in on-the-ground conditions.
This does not mean restrictions on civic space are not occurring in specific countries — country-level case evidence in several instances is clear — but it does mean the aggregate global trend line should be read with more caution than it typically receives in summary reporting.